Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the New Round of the India-Pakistan Conflict
12.05.2025
India and Pakistan Announce Ceasefire After Three Days of Clashes Involving Airstrikes, Precision Weapons, Drones, and Artillery
A new wave of escalation began following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India, which killed 26 people and injured many civilians. The Pakistan-based Islamist group Lashkar-e-Taiba claimed responsibility for the attack.
This incident triggered Indian strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan. On May 7, India conducted Operation "Sindoor," targeting nine terrorist sites in Pakistan and in the Pakistan-occupied part of Kashmir, including headquarters of Islamist groups.
This provoked a sharp reaction from Pakistan, which declared the start of a combat operation and launched strikes on Indian military facilities.
India responded immediately: its armed forces launched missile strikes on key sites of Pakistan’s military infrastructure, including air defense systems and air force bases.
The precision missile strikes on Pakistani air bases, damaging airfield buildings, hangars, and equipment, demonstrated the ability to penetrate dense Pakistani air defenses and hit targets deep within Pakistan's territory.
Islamabad viewed the attack as aggression and responded by stepping up operations along the Line of Control, using drones and artillery.
Hostilities included a series of Pakistani drone strikes, after which India retaliated with mortar and anti-tank guided missile attacks on Pakistani army positions.
Despite the intensity of shelling and use of advanced technologies, the conflict did not escalate into a full-scale war. Both sides avoided large-scale ground operations, limiting themselves to strikes on frontline positions and infrastructure. This suggests the existence of "invisible red lines" that neither India nor Pakistan is willing to cross. Armed conflicts between nuclear powers may unfold within a limited scope, although the risk of sudden escalation remains.
Drones and the 'Information Battle'
The conflict once again highlighted the growing role of unmanned systems in regional wars. Drones and precision weapons are radically changing the nature of border clashes, enabling strikes without the deployment of large forces. According to Indian sources, their military shot down over a dozen Turkish-made Songar and YIHA-III attack drones recently supplied to Pakistan. Reconnaissance drones, artillery spotters, and loitering munitions striking rear targets were also used.
Alongside the military action, a large-scale information campaign unfolded. Information warfare has become an integral part of such clashes, with disinformation flows and psychological operations distorting the real picture of combat, where perception of victory among the public may matter as much as battlefield success.
Official accounts, bloggers, Telegram channels, and even some state media published reports of shelling, allegedly destroyed equipment, missile strikes, and human casualties. However, most of this information remained unverified, and in many cases was clearly falsified. In the early days of the conflict, fake videos, old footage, game simulations passed off as real combat, and inflated enemy losses alongside downplayed own losses spread especially actively.
Disinformation campaigns on social media and in the press add confusion, and some outcomes of the clashes may only become clear after full cessation of hostilities. By then, both sides will likely be constructing their official “victory narratives,” behind which the reality may eventually emerge.
Regional Reaction: Armenia and Azerbaijan
For Armenia and Azerbaijan, the conflict holds some practical significance. It affects the perception of military capabilities of their partners within military-technical cooperation, showcasing defense industry capabilities and response readiness.
Azerbaijan is a strategic ally of Pakistan and a buyer of various military products, including JF-17 fighter jets.
Armenia, in turn, is a military-technical partner and the largest buyer of Indian weapons. From 2022 to 2024, 43% of Armenia’s arms imports came from India.
Through its Foreign Minister, Armenia indirectly supported India in the escalated conflict with Pakistan, which does not recognize the Republic of Armenia as a state. Armenia condemned the terrorist attack and affirmed India’s right to defend itself against terrorism.
Armenia should closely monitor the conflict’s development, considering its deepening military cooperation with India. India's demonstration of precision weapons and air defense systems could, depending on the conflict’s course, bolster Armenia’s position in selecting India as a primary arms supplier and serve as an argument for expanding military-technical cooperation with India.
Azerbaijan, as a strategic ally of Pakistan and deeply integrated into a trilateral alliance with Turkey and Pakistan, expressed full support for Islamabad, blaming the escalation on “India’s unilateral actions.” Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes on Pakistani territory.
Azerbaijani media emphasized the “provocative nature of India’s strikes” and the importance of the strategic alliance with Pakistan and Turkey.
Unstable Ceasefire
On May 10, a ceasefire was announced with U.S. mediation. However, within hours, both sides accused each other of violations. Explosions and drone activity were recorded in Kashmir. India reported repeated violations by Pakistan, while Pakistan denied the accusations.
Despite diplomatic efforts and the declared ceasefire, the presence of armed Islamist group bases and training camps in Pakistan means that further terrorist attacks in India remain a possibility, which could trigger renewed escalation.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has officially declared victory over India.
India, for its part, reports successful achievement of its objectives and states it is prepared to escalate further if necessary.
Eduard Arakelyan
RCDS analyst
The article was originally published on Civilnet.am